Against the Fate – Chapter 13
Chapter 13: Luck
The Professor asked Cui Ming, “Can you raise your odds of drawing a stratagem card?”
“When I was distraught I almost couldn’t draw a stratagem card. But when I focus – if in my heart I very much want a certain card – the probability of drawing that card will greatly increase. If I use Fortune Teller twice in a row, the shorter the time interval between the two uses, the greater the probability of drawing a waste card.”
The Professor thought for a while, before saying, “Strategy Types are inexplicable. Today I even met a pure gambling Strategy Type. The world is really big.”
North Luna asked, “Professor, how is he?”
The Professor looked at North Luna, and pondered for a long time, “North Luna, this is your own decision. Picking him as your teammates is a gamble. With good luck he’ll be a very big help. With bad luck he will become cumbersome, or even a hindrance. Although he can increase the chance of drawing a special card, there is bound to be a limit, because he is young, he has no experience, so he needs time to improve.”
North Luna looked at Cui Ming, she was quite hesitant. Cui Ming smiled, “Luck is one kind of strength. Let’s play a game, I have a J, a Q, and a K, I’ll place them facedown and whoever can pick out the K is the winner.”
Cui Ming put three poker cards on the table, and then his hands and fingers quickly shuffled the three cards. In North Luna and The Professor’s eyes, his shuffling was too slow. The Professor shook his head, pointed to the cards and said, “This is a J, this is a Q, and this is a K.”
“Please choose one.”
The Professor flopped up the card he thought was a K, but it was a Q. North Luna flipped over the card she thought was a Q, but it was a J. Cui Ming flipped over the last card, and it was the K. Cui Ming smiled and said, “I’m very lucky.”
“He’s cheating,” The Professor told North Luna.
“Second round,” Cui Mind said without a care.
“Cheating is also a special ability,” Cui Ming said and continued on with the shuffle, after finishing he gestured, “Please.”
The Professor said, “When you shuffle, the order is JQK, but I think you are cheating, so the J card I saw, will not be a J.”
Flipping the card to see… ‘f*ck, it’s really is a J‘ he thought when he saw the face.
Cui Ming smiled. Old man, this trick is not about being positive, or negative, but about judging the actual situation. It utilizes psychological analysis and judgement of character in order to make sure you jump into the trap.
Deception is more complicated than cultivation. Aura cultivators only need to understand their own mind, frauds need to understand not only their own mind but also that of his opponent. The Art of War said that ‘If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles’.”
EDN : Quote from Sun Tzu’s Art of War, Chapter 3 : Strategic Attack (知彼知己，百戰不殆；不知彼而知己，一勝一負；不知彼，不知己，每戰必殆)
North Luna glared at the two poker cards, she placed her fingers on the first card and looked at Cui Ming. Cui Ming’s expression was very calm. North Luna’s finger moved to the second card and Cui Ming’s eyelid moved, so North Luna flipped over the second, which was the Q. She’s naive; she believes that observing Cui Ming’s expression to determine which card is the K could help. She did not expect Cui Ming to intentionally show flaws, so she chose the Q.
Cui Ming then proceeded to shuffle the cards, “The third round, this time I have a 50% chance of losing to Boss, but Professor, you won’t be able to get the K. It will definitely end up in either my hand or boss’,” It seemed to be a casual remark, but in fact, Cui Ming had implied that the Professor would not pay attention to the K, and instead focus on the Q. So this time, he reduced Q’s moving speed, allowing The Professor to clearly follow the card.
With this technique, there is a 75% chance that he will choose Q. After that he was up against North Luna, which gave him a 50-50, so Cui Ming said 50% he may lose. Even if he lost, because of the first two rounds’ performance and his prediction of this round, the situation was in Cui Ming’s favour.
Just a few simple words, could contain far too many things. In Aura cultivation he wasn’t the rival of the two, but in playing cards, he was on a whole different level.
Sure enough, The Professor pegged the Q, since the Q only moved once and the possibility of it being a cheat was too low. Cui Ming cheated in a very simple way, as North Luna and The Professor had observed, the order was JQK. For example, when shuffling, J and Q overlap, this time he made it seem as if the J on top had been moved to the left, when in fact it was the Q at bottom had been moved to the left. In this round the Q did not overlap and was only moved once, The Professor did not hesitate to flip the Q up which was, in fact, a Q. Cui Minh thought, ‘You’re right, but you lost‘.
What was his strategy? Because of his speech before the round. The Professor, as Cui Ming predicted, didn’t want to admit defeat, so he would certainly pay attention to K, wanting to catch it and hit Cui Ming’s face, but Cui Minh moved the K very quickly. Because of the first two failures, The Professor had lost confidence in his own judgments, so this time when he found Q had only been moved once, he decided to choose the safer route.
The Professor was wrong in his decision, although Q was bigger than J, the outcome wasn’t decided by who held J or Q, but who held K. Because of Cui Ming’s words, he was mislead.
North Luna pointed at a card, looked at Cui Ming, Cui Ming eyelids hopped. Again? No, he knows I know. But he also knows I know he knows… This could not be inferred with logic. Cui Ming said, “Boss, you lose. I thought you had a 50% chance of beating me, but you hesitated, so now you must draw out the J.”
North Luna looked at Cui Ming for a long time, before turning over a card, it really was J..
Cui Ming smiled, “Luck is one kind of strength.”
“You replaced the K with a J, on the desk there are two Js and a Q, there is no K.” North Luna said, “I want to play another round, this time only the two of us with the K and the J.”
Cui Ming nodded casually, while shuffling he asked, “If I win, can you consider teaching me cultivation?”
North Luna faced the two cards, her fingers pointed to a card as she said: “You flip this card.”
“K.” Cui Ming flipped his card, smiled, and reached to take back the other card.
North Luna didn’t let go, she said, “I am sure this is also a K. What I said before was that you replaced the Ks with Js, so you’ll assume I think that both cards are Js. To counter that, I must let you pick first, so you change both cards into Ks. ”
Cui Ming was helpless and motioned, “Please flip.”
North Luna flipped over her card, and then she wrinkled her face, it turned out to be a J.
Boss, you think too much. You’re too obvious about your intentions. You are not stupid, so I know you will doubt that I have replaced the card. As a result, the way you choose a card is very casual, so I placed the J a little closer to your hand.
Overcoming me is very simple: plug the ears, close the eyes, and randomly grab one, so that the probability of winning is 50-50. Listen to my words, and my chances will rise to 60%. Think about what I said, and now I have a 70% chance, if you hesitate, but also listen to me, my winning percentage will reach 80%. But never will I obtain 100%. As a gambler, unless I’m cheating, otherwise there can not be a 100 % winning percentage. However,, to a gambler a 51% chance was enough. With enough tries , I will naturally win more. This is why bookmakers are the winners in many cases. The real gambler decides the outcome in one round, so that their chances of victory are maximized. As for those who want to test their luck first, they are mostly losers.
North Luna looked at Cui Ming for a while, then turned to The Professor, “Is there anything that I need to especially pay attention to?”
Professor looked at Cui Ming and thought for a long time before shaking his head, “No, I don’t know much about the Strategy Type, should your ability be regarded as strategical, or deceitful? Young man, if you have free time, I invite you to dinner, we can talk about this.”
“Thank you Professor. Goodbye,” North Luna stood up and nodded.